Accuracy
How accurate are our estimates?
Every sales figure on GamesBerry is a model. The only way to know how good it is: compare it with the figures developers have stated themselves. Below is every such figure we hold, what our model said, and by how much it missed. How the model works is on the methodology page.
Current model (v3), held out
~27%
Median error on copies, scored on the half of the 33 games it was not fitted on, over 2,000 random splits. Live now as v3.1.
Previous model (v2), out of sample
31%
Median error on n=33, never tuned on them; 26% low at the median; 20 of 33 inside our band. Checked 2026-09-26.
v3 on the same games (in sample)
26%
n=33; 2% high at the median; 24 of 33 in band. v3 was fitted on these games, so this flatters it.
Calibration anchors, today
11%
Median error on n=8 big games the model was tuned on — it says the tuning holds, nothing more.
The picture
Each game twice: the stated figure against v2's estimate for that month (hollow circles) and against v3's (filled diamonds). On the solid line the estimate equals the stated figure; between the dashed lines the stated figure falls inside the 0.6×–1.7× band we print for a well-reviewed game.
Where the error sat, by list price: v2 undercounted games from $7 up; v3's small-paid-game correction was fitted to close exactly that gap, so its bars are in-sample.
33 Steam games with studio-stated sales
On 2026-09-26 we collected 40 copies-sold figures studios stated themselves and scored the 33 that are Steam-scoped with a review history (the other 7 are listed below). Each is compared with our figure at the end of the month it was stated in. Source: the studio's own statement (mostly Steam news posts); per-row links were not recorded. Both quirks of the check flatter the model — the month-end figure includes a few more days of sales, and “over 100,000” is a lower bound.
v2 is the model before these games were seen. v3 was then fitted on them; its column shows what that fit produced, not a test of it. The live model, v3.1, changed how revenue is priced and how Early Access games are aged; this copies check was not re-run under it.
| Game | List | Stated | On | v2 then | Error | In band | v3 then | Error | In band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minami Lane | $2.49 | 100,000 | 2024-07-04 | ≈ 110,808 | +11% | Yes | ≈ 110,808 | +11% | Yes |
| Aliya: Timelink | $2.99 | 100,000 | 2025-02-26 | ≈ 126,697 | +27% | Yes | ≈ 126,697 | +27% | Yes |
| Buckshot Roulette | $2.99 | 6,000,000 | 2025-05-08 | ≈ 3,128,838 | -48% | No | ≈ 3,128,838 | -48% | No |
| Touhou Ice Fairy | $3.42 | 18,000 | 2023-03-25 | ≈ 14,852 | -17% | Yes | ≈ 14,852 | -17% | Yes |
| Nomad Survival | $3.49 | 10,000 | 2022-05-05 | ≈ 13,245 | +32% | Yes | ≈ 13,245 | +32% | Yes |
| Woodle Tree Adv. | $3.99 | 45,000 | 2015-08-29 | ≈ 14,067 | -69% | No | ≈ 14,067 | -69% | No |
| 20 Minutes Till Dawn | $4.99 | 220,523 | 2022-06-12 | ≈ 227,375 | +3% | Yes | ≈ 227,375 | +3% | Yes |
| Nubbys Number Factory | $4.99 | 200,000 | 2025-05-31 | ≈ 209,200 | +5% | Yes | ≈ 209,200 | +5% | Yes |
| Mystias Izakaya | $5.99 | 200,000 | 2022-09-30 | ≈ 381,845 | +91% | No | ≈ 381,845 | +91% | No |
| Pseudoregalia | $5.99 | 100,000 | 2024-02-29 | ≈ 182,390 | +82% | No | ≈ 182,390 | +82% | No |
| Suicide Guy | $5.99 | 40,000 | 2019-04-22 | ≈ 13,824 | -65% | No | ≈ 13,824 | -65% | No |
| Townscaper | $5.99 | 380,000 | 2021-05-19 | ≈ 371,995 | -2% | Yes | ≈ 371,995 | -2% | Yes |
| Gnorp Apologue | $6.99 | 200,000 | 2024-04-01 | ≈ 187,877 | -6% | Yes | ≈ 187,877 | -6% | Yes |
| Rustys Retirement | $6.99 | 200,000 | 2024-05-10 | ≈ 251,467 | +26% | Yes | ≈ 251,467 | +26% | Yes |
| Necesse | $9.74 | 1,000,000 | 2023-12-25 | ≈ 274,954 | -73% | No | ≈ 412,430 | -59% | No |
| CloverPit | $9.99 | 1,000,000 | 2025-11-12 | ≈ 305,208 | -69% | No | ≈ 418,950 | -58% | No |
| Hereticss Fork | $9.99 | 100,000 | 2024-03-04 | ≈ 73,282 | -27% | Yes | ≈ 109,922 | +10% | Yes |
| Megaloot | $9.99 | 100,000 | 2024-09-14 | ≈ 71,232 | -29% | Yes | ≈ 106,848 | +7% | Yes |
| Warsim | $9.99 | 100,000 | 2024-08-19 | ≈ 68,170 | -32% | Yes | ≈ 102,254 | +2% | Yes |
| Death and Taxes | $12.99 | 300,000 | 2023-08-09 | ≈ 181,915 | -39% | Yes | ≈ 272,873 | -9% | Yes |
| Mouthwashing | $12.99 | 500,000 | 2025-02-19 | ≈ 503,323 | +1% | Yes | ≈ 552,515 | +11% | Yes |
| The Operator | $13.99 | 100,000 | 2025-07-24 | ≈ 275,962 | +176% | No | ≈ 413,942 | +314% | No |
| Backpack Battles | $14.99 | 500,000 | 2024-03-22 | ≈ 224,482 | -55% | No | ≈ 336,722 | -33% | Yes |
| Move or Die | $14.99 | 1,000,000 | 2020-09-22 | ≈ 431,724 | -57% | No | ≈ 623,034 | -38% | Yes |
| Tiny Glade | $14.99 | 616,000 | 2024-10-25 | ≈ 280,541 | -54% | No | ≈ 420,811 | -32% | Yes |
| Needy Streamer Overload | $15.99 | 350,000 | 2022-04-04 | ≈ 241,272 | -31% | Yes | ≈ 347,427 | -1% | Yes |
| Among the Sleep | $16.99 | 17,603 | 2014-06-06 | ≈ 20,334 | +16% | Yes | ≈ 30,501 | +73% | No |
| Soulash 2 | $18.99 | 19,000 | 2024-07-11 | ≈ 13,642 | -28% | Yes | ≈ 20,462 | +8% | Yes |
| Gibbous | $19.99 | 90,000 | 2024-06-05 | ≈ 45,358 | -50% | No | ≈ 68,037 | -24% | Yes |
| Intravenous 2 | $19.99 | 105,000 | 2025-04-14 | ≈ 82,858 | -21% | Yes | ≈ 124,286 | +18% | Yes |
| Roottrees are Dead | $19.99 | 100,000 | 2025-06-30 | ≈ 52,726 | -47% | No | ≈ 79,088 | -21% | Yes |
| Valheim | $29.99 | 6,000,000 | 2021-03-19 | ≈ 4,442,933 | -26% | Yes | ≈ 4,442,933 | -26% | Yes |
| shapez 2 | $29.99 | 273,000 | 2024-09-15 | ≈ 291,514 | +7% | Yes | ≈ 437,270 | +60% | Yes |
Error is our figure against the stated one (− = we were low). In band: the stated figure is between 0.6× and 1.7× our figure.
| List price | n | Stated ÷ v2 | Stated ÷ v3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $7 | 14 | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| $7–15.99 | 12 | 1.56 | 1.05 |
| $16+ | 7 | 1.35 | 0.93 |
The 7 we did not score, and why
Listed so “33 of 40” can be checked rather than taken on trust. From the calibration harness, 2026-09-26.
| Game | Stated | On | Why not scored |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Lung | 37,000 | 2022-04-28 | The statement did not say Steam-only or all platforms, and we estimate Steam only. |
| Geometry Arena | 10,000 | 2020-05-31 | The statement did not say Steam-only or all platforms, and we estimate Steam only. |
| Cat God Ranch | 100,000 | 2024-10-14 | The statement did not say Steam-only or all platforms, and we estimate Steam only. |
| Dice & Fold | 40,000 | 2024-08-16 | The statement did not say Steam-only or all platforms, and we estimate Steam only. |
| LONESTAR | 100,000 | 2025-05-20 | The statement did not say Steam-only or all platforms, and we estimate Steam only. |
| Minishoot Adventures | 30,000 | 2024-04-29 | The statement did not say Steam-only or all platforms, and we estimate Steam only. |
| PEAK | 2,000,000 | 2025-06-25 | Steam-scoped, but stated 9 days after its 2025-06-16 release: there was no monthly review history to compare with. |
Calibration anchors — today's estimate
Big games whose publishers stated Steam or PC copies sold. The model is tuned on these, so they show the tuning holds, not that it generalises. Our figure is today's live estimate and range; the dates of these statements were not recorded, and a game still selling has grown since.
| Game | Stated | On | Source | Ours now | Our range | Error | In range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rust | 20,000,000 | date not recorded | Facepunch | ≈ 20,243,061 | 12,145,837–34,413,204 | +1% | Inside |
| Stardew Valley | 26,000,000 | date not recorded | ConcernedApe (PC) | ≈ 25,363,694 | 15,218,216–43,118,280 | -2% | Inside |
| Palworld | 15,000,000 | date not recorded | Pocketpair | ≈ 15,419,299 | 9,251,579–26,212,808 | +3% | Inside |
| Crusader Kings III | 4,000,000 | date not recorded | Paradox | ≈ 4,646,115 | 2,787,669–7,898,396 | +16% | Inside |
| Manor Lords | 3,000,000 | date not recorded | Hooded Horse | ≈ 2,885,580 | 1,731,348–4,905,486 | -4% | Inside |
| Against the Storm | 1,500,000 | date not recorded | Hooded Horse | ≈ 1,332,013 | 799,208–2,264,422 | -11% | Inside |
| Dwarf Fortress | 1,000,000 | date not recorded | Kitfox (Steam) | ≈ 1,117,061 | 670,237–1,899,004 | +12% | Inside |
| House Flipper 2 | 1,000,000 | date not recorded | Frozen District (Steam) | ≈ 825,515 | 495,309–1,403,376 | -17% | Inside |
Revenue
Every figure above is copies sold. Revenue is a separate claim, and we hold 1 stated revenue figure to check it with. Ours is gross Steam sales before Valve's share.
| Game | Stated | On | Source | Ours now | Our range | Error | In range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meltopia | $360,000.00 | 2026-08-08 | developer, direct | ≈ $432,041.15 | $259.2K–$734.5K | +20% | Inside |
Meltopia: reported as gross Steam sales, believed but not confirmed. If the stated figure is after Valve's cut instead, the same comparison reads very differently. Our figure is today's and the game is still selling, so it covers a little more than the statement does.
Send us your real numbers
Shipped a game on Steam? Your sales are the ground truth this page is short of. Find your game and send its copies sold or revenue — any size of game, not only those under 5,000 reviews whose pages ask. Submitted figures are reviewed before they appear here, and only with your permission.